Back to the Future: Key Takeaways from the 2024 HeliOffshore Panel
02 May 2024
The offshore helicopter sector is overdue a fleet renewal cycle. This was the main message delivered in Vienna last week when LCI Analytics’ MD, Steve Robertson, took to the stage as a panel host at the HeliOffshore Annual Conference.
LCI Analytics led a top-level discussion on supply chain challenges, which featured esteemed representatives of industry leaders from Leonardo, PHI, CHC, Lockheed Martin and Milestone Aviation.
The panel, providing an important opportunity to take the temperature of the industry, reflected on previous movements in the market and sought to analyse both current and likely future trends.
The ‘Missing Generation’ from 2015-2024
Using O&G fleet renewal and supply-chain data, LCI Analytics showed how it had been possible to predict current shortages in helicopter capacity two years out. Drawing out details of the global fleet mix by delivery year, the time aircraft spend in base maintenance and the forward visibility of new activity, the data highlighted a ‘missing generation’ of aircraft broadly running from 2015 to present, and that this trend could be arrested and reversed if the conditions were right.
New aircraft will be required for replacement demand, growth demand, and also improved safety, emissions, and performance requirements. However, a vital takeaway from the panel discussions was that the delivery of new units will require all relevant stakeholders (including end-users, OEMs, lessors, financiers, investors, and appraisers) tackling the fleet renewal challenge head-on. For example, entirely new streams of trained and type rated pilots and engineers need to be recruited, ready to fly and maintain new helicopters.
The recipe and its ingredients
Our market analysis showed two realities:
- Firstly, that the age distribution of the fleet is heavily skewed, exacerbated by the lowest level of new deliveries witnessed in two decades.
- Secondly, that within the overall offshore fleet of ~1,400 aircraft, a significant number are ‘legacy aircraft’ which are no longer in production and were built and certified prior to the introduction of modern safety standards.
Naturally, the industry will require certain ‘raw ingredients’ to meet the fleet renewal challenge, including resilient supply-chains, raw materials and financing. However, it is people power that is required in greatest abundance. From offshore helicopter personnel, to pilots, to a new generation of interns, apprentices and rising stars, this industry will only go as far as it’s ideas and energies allow it.
LCI Analytics will return to the importance of personnel in future analysis, so keep an eye out for our future Insight posts.