Four Ears On – HAI is Back in Anaheim

23 February 2024
Mickey and Minnie Mouse will once again welcome the helicopter industry to Anaheim this year and the streets in the immediate vicinity of Disneyland will be populated by a curious juxtaposition of fun-seeking families sporting clip-on ears, and anorak-wearing helicopter professionals from around the world.
The HAI of Anaheim 2020 narrowly preceded the truly world altering Covid-19 pandemic, and so it’s worth recapping some of the lessons and observations since then:
1. It’s easier to fly a helicopter on Mars than it is to certify one on Earth
At HAI 2020, NASA presented a preview of the Mars Helicopter Scout mission that was scheduled for 2021. The ambitious plan would involve the helicopter hitching a lift underneath the Perseverance rover before conducting solo missions in the thin, Martian atmosphere (this necessitating the blades to achieve ~2500 RPMs, or about 10 times faster than what is needed on Earth). It was a tremendous success and ultimately flew a total of 72 flights until eventually being grounded in January 2024.
At the same HAI event, Kopter announced new orders for the SH09 along with an expectation of “joint EASA / FAA certification by the end of the year”, Sikorsky announced an S-92A+ upgrade kit to be “ready for 2023”, Bell displayed a 525 on its stand and stated the programme was in the “final stages of testing” and Airbus stated that the H160 would be certified “in the next few weeks” with Shell expected to be one of the first operators.
At the time of writing, nearly all of these types are still yet to be certified (with the exception of the H160 which was certified by the FAA in June 2023 – albeit not yet flying passengers for Shell), only going to highlight the challenges that OEMs face when introducing new aircraft. Perhaps there are some lessons here for the nascent advanced air mobility market?
Anyway, despite headwinds faced universally by OEMs with new aircraft programmes, there have also been some outstanding successes.
Airbus’ H145 model has seen over 200 deliveries since HAI was last at Anaheim according to data from Cirium (see chart above), and the latest D3 model launched in 2019 has proved popular, particularly in EMS markets and in the emerging offshore wind business. The H175 super-medium model has in the last four years seen a meaningful improvement in availability as a result of an ongoing maturity programme and the type has seen double-digit deliveries over this period including into new territories such as Brazil and Malaysia.
The over-hang of un-utilised Sikorsky S-92As, which stood at 34 uncontracted aircraft in 2020 has now been absorbed, with just two uncontracted aircraft at the time of writing, which is good news not only for owners of S-92s but also for the super-medium OEMs which were struggling to compete with surplus S-92s being offered into the market at lower-than-usual rates.
The ubiquitous AW139 programme goes from strength to strength, having been in production for over 20 years now and with over 1,000 units now in civilian service and on order as part of a global fleet of over 1,200 units with more than 3 million flight hours flown. The modern variants have remained in-demand throughout the years since 2020.
The Leonardo AW189 has proven to be a robust design with several of the fleet leaders reaching TBO dates on key components such as main gearboxes – which have run for over 5,000 hours without issue. The type has been exceptionally successful in new SAR tenders, being selected since 2020 for the Irish Coastguard, the second-generation UK SAR programme, the Dutch Antilles SAR service and the Netherlands Coastguard, as well as in the oil and gas markets.
2. When the going gets tough, the mission critical rotorcraft get going
In contrast to the commercial fixed-wing market, Covid-19 highlighted not only the ability of rotorcraft to perform secondary HEMS missions, but also the ability of the entire rotorcraft supply chain to react and adapt. This ranged from deploying PPE for staff and passengers, the re-arrangement of terminals and flight timings, modifications to aircraft including barriers between crew and passengers and even dedicated ‘Corona-copters’ for the transfer of unwell offshore workers from platform to shore. This ensured that critical services such as providing energy and power to the population could continue uninterrupted.
Furthermore, the incidence of major climate events such as flooding and wildfires has shown the value of rotorcraft in saving lives and limiting environmental destruction. A paper by the UN Environment programme in 2023 forecast that the incidence of extreme fires would increase 14% by 2030 and go up 30% by 2050. The helicopter market continues to innovate and to bring forward new solutions including cost-effective retrofit techniques such as those used in the Helitak system. If you are visiting LCI at HAI 2024 the Helitak stand is adjacent to it and well worth a look. In early 2023 oil and gas operators including PHI and CHC rescued hundreds of stranded people and delivered much needed aid in Kimberly, Western Australia following floods described as the “worst flooding Western Australia has ever seen”.
3. Despite everything, the long-term optimism was justified
A positive market outlook amongst the lessors was a feature of HAI 2020 with Crispin Maunder of LCI noting that “our view of this market is that it’s coming off the bottom—certainly, the trend is positive” and Milestone CEO Pat Sheedy remarking on a “positive demand outlook” despite “structural issues” with how aircraft are contracted, such as 60-day ‘cancellation for convenience’ clauses, a major challenge to long-term investments in new aircraft.
Despite the interruption to the industry during the Covid outbreak, this positivity proved justified and the lessors that were impacted by the severe industry downturn are now facing supply shortages themselves. Data from LCI Analytics indicates that the number of contracted S-92 aircraft has increased from 168 to 187 since 2020, and that S-92 lease rates are up by 48% over the same period (albeit we note that interest rates have also risen over the period too).
These developments mean that we can approach HAI 2024 with a sense of optimism. Demand drivers in the mission critical rotorcraft sectors are positive with the underlying levels of fleet renewal in recent years having been low. The gradual implementation of latest safety standards offshore and the ongoing modernisation of the rotary fleet should present opportunities for the sector in the years to come. Of course, the industry must address supply-side, supply-chain and also financing challenges, and it must also endeavour to achieve growth in a disciplined and pragmatic manner if the market is to be balanced and sustainable in the future. Notwithstanding such challenges, perhaps the hardworking helicopter executives will find a moment to wave back at Mickey and Minnie!
Warmest regards,
Steve