04 March 2024

We’re taking stock after a busy week in Anaheim. The HAI (now VAI) Heli-Expo (soon to be Verticon) wrapped up in positive fashion with a flurry of orders, announcements and partnership agreements. 

Despite some headline-grabbing triple-digit orders, firm commitments to new aircraft represented a relatively modest effort to renew the mission-critical rotorcraft fleets and accommodate future growth; Airbus Helicopters predicts a requirement for ~800 new units per year valued at ~$7bn for the next twenty years… 

Over 400 new aircraft ‘announcements’ were made over the HAI 2024 period running the two-weeks commencing 19^th February 2024. Analysis of these orders suggests that 103 (25%) were firm and, thus, any initial perception or suggestion of over-exuberance on behalf of end-users, lessors or helicopter operators is perhaps premature. 

Firm commitments were made during the show to well-established types including numerous AW139, AW189, H145 and H135 orders (Bristow, DRF, Equinor, Healthnet, LCI, THC). The event was also notable for the first Bell 525 order, placed by Norwegian energy company Equinor.  

The end-application for many, but not all, of the announced orders is clear. LCI Analytics considers that of the 103 orders, it is likely that the HEMS & SAR market will see the bulk (51) of the new orders. THC is in the process of building out a substantial HEMS & SAR provision in Saudi Arabia which is expected to absorb most, if not all, of the firm THC commitments.

The energy sector is now two years into a new growth cycle having emerged from a seven-year downturn that saw very little fleet replacement. It is expected that 38 of the 103 orders placed at HAI 2024 will find their way into the energy sector which as a proportion of the current offshore fleet would represent only 3%, which, bearing in mind that a 25-year asset life implies an average through-cycle replacement rate of 4% per year, is not an outrageously high figure by any means.  

Notably, some effort has been made to diversify the fleet above 7T MTOW with Norway being the standout example. It had previously been reliant on a single type in the offshore market (S-92) and will now feature four types including the AW189, B525 and AW139.  

Within the ‘Other’ category are H130s for the tourism market (Niagara Helicopters), AW109s for Sloane and Bell 429s for an un-named ‘Middle East customer’. 

After a busy week in Orange County it looks like the sun is finally shining on the civil rotorcraft market. We look forward to seeing you all at ‘Verticon’ next year in Dallas! 

Kind regards, 

Steve